A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
